New Hampshire Primary

Well, well, do I qualify as a real-life pundit or not? Some of my observations, predictions, and assessments that I raised in Iowa were validated last night, and some of them were not. I guess I can't go wrong when I talk on both sides of my mouth!

Where was I right? I raised doubts that the vast majority of American voters would embrace candidates with little experience, and I was referring specifically to Obama and Edwards. Well, the candidates with the most experience won last night. Hillary triumphed on the Democratic side, and McCain for the Republicans.

Where was I wrong? I suggested that there was a strong possibility that Huckabee would be the GOP nominee, since he is charming, well-spoken, Christian, and (somewhat) conservative. Now, I'm not so sure. His momentum was possibly killed last night. On the other hand, he may still win in other states. McCain won New Hampshire last night, but he also won it in 2000. My point? John McCain is greatly beloved in New Hampshire. But McCain was stopped in his tracks in the 2000 South Carolina primary, and that can happen again. The Christian conservatives of the state may vote for Huckabee because he is one of their own.

The person to watch is Romney. It's just a feeling that I have. Huckabee won big in Iowa, and McCain in New Hampshire, but Romney came in second in both. There appears to be some stability in terms of his support. I don't know what Romney's appeal is, since he comes across to me as a sordid character who likes to bash his opponents. But he seems to be attracting a lot of people.

One thing that scared off many of the Republican candidates in 2000 was the amount of money in the Bush campaign. Money will be a factor in 2008 because Romney is spending a lot on negative ads. But it is not the deciding factor. Ron Paul has raised the most, yet he has done poorly so far. One needs money, but also the support of the party establishment and the admiration of the Christian right. I'm not sure whom the party establishment is supporting, and the Christian right is divided, with Robertson endorsing Rudy, Paul Weyrich backing Romney (for whatever reason), and Phyllis Schlafly expressing dissatisfaction with all of the Republican contenders.

Hillary managed to win last night, even though Rush Limbaugh acted as if she'd sunk her campaign by crying in public. After all, didn't public weeping disqualify Eugene McCarthy and Pat Schroeder? But we live in a time when people like to bare their emotions to the public. Joel Osteen cries in a lot of his sermons, and he gets applause for doing so. Hillary had to do something to show that she has an emotion other than cold political calculation. So her crying helped her. Maybe that's because American culture is becoming feminized--not completely (since we still have wars, as Sally Field noted), but in a lot of areas. Granted, there is also a lot of masculinity in American culture, which is probably one reason that McCain won: he's looks like someone with the experience to stand up to America's enemies. But isn't Rudy tough? Yeah, but he won't get support if he keeps taking leaves of absence from the primaries, which appears to have been his custom.

I think that Hillary will get the Democratic nomination. As far as the Republicans are concerned, I don't know. My guess is that Romney will be the GOP candidate.